26 June 2009

Swing to the Left: Conservative Gain

Here are the results of an opinion poll for the forthcoming Norwich North by-election:

CON 34%(+1), LAB 30%(-15), LDEM 15%(-1), Green 14%(+11)

If accurate, it looks like the Conservatives will gain this seat from Labour.

But look at what has happened to the vote. Labour's support has dropped massively, and has mainly gone to the Greens. Now analysing political parties simply in terms of left-right is a crude measure, but nonetheless it is obvious from a quick glance at their policies that Greens are to the left of Labour. This poll represents a significant leftwards shift in attitudes in Norwich North.

So a shift to the left results in a gain for the right. Yet another flaw with first-past-the-post.


neil craig said...

By what definition are the Greens, who want to go back to the middle ages, "left"? he are further to the right than lady Catherine de Burgh.

Duncan Stott said...

Neil, thanks for the opportunity for me to clarify: I mean 'left' as more state intervention and 'right' as less. I should have made this clearer.

Yes, you could argue that the Greens are conservative. But they are a very different sort of conservative to the Conservatives.

neil craig said...

But then you aren't really talking about Left V right at all but about totalitarian V liberal.

On that you have a point that the Conservatives are fairly liberal & the Greens highly totalitarian. I suspect the extra Green vote was not because of that but simply disgust at the traditional parties since polls have recently shown that only 7% of people believe in more government spending.